Day-to-Day Homicides in Mexico Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Data

The typical number of everyday killings per month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh official figures. Nevertheless, security analysts have advised that murder data might not point to improved national safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 murders a day in November versus nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen over these months is remarkably significant,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that last month the lowest figure of homicides were registered for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in recent times. The rate reached a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the US. However, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and there is detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced collaboration between government agencies.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers warned that focusing solely on murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is particularly true in light of the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“It would be excellent information if this was a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for gauging the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to properly identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of daily killings was also concerning because it could mask periods when there were notably spiking numbers of murders.

“Relying on the per-day average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Success

Where the administration can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains plagued by severe violence, with several states in the midst of cartel-related bloodshed. Last month there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a story of improvement. Politically it’s extremely effective, socially it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst said.