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Initially, Trump appeared to embrace a firm position regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After making statements of "serious ramifications" last August should Russia's president carried on obstructing truce negotiations, he ultimately enacted major sanctions on Russia's primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially affected Putin's ability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly created by US and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has apparently gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's proposal would in practice favor the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in peril. Although strong declarations that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the plan actually compromise that very sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business past, Trump seems to consider the war as a simple territorial dispute, like handing Putin a section of Ukrainian land will please the ruler. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a charred region of economically weakened territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent desire to eliminate it so it ceases to serves as an enticing model for the Russian people of the democratic governance that his deepening dictatorship prevents them.

Land Concessions

While maintaining in status the presently divided oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would require the nation to surrender all of this eastern territory. Beyond favoring Russia with territory that its military have been failed to capture in over a decade of fighting, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses severely weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a key obstacle to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these positions, leaving Putin a unobstructed path to the capital in case he eventually choose to resume the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would facilitate future conflict more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would force Ukraine to reduce the scale of its military from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of 600,000. Notably, Trump's initiative places no similar restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's efforts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected government as radicals, Trump's plan states: "Any radical doctrine and practices must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this point, it demands that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump imposes no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by holding elections in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the proposal includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached similar accords in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to honor the nation's borders in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a return of seized territory in the region to the government – how should we believe this commitment now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international security guarantees. Although the plan warns of a "immediate coordinated military response" if the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive reliable defense commitments", the details range from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the security presence, likely headed by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Putin from replenishing his diminished military, restocking, and attacking again.

Global Response

An additional side agreement reportedly would offer the nation with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "significant, planned, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a defense action. However unlike a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's primary deterrent against future Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the side agreement would rely on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to respond through arms to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not